When Will El Niño Hit California, and How Strong Will It Be?
California’s state of emergency, proclaimed by Governor Newsom, is a direct response to forecasts about the timing and strength of this year’s El Niño event.
📅 Timing: this fall and winter
Federal forecasters cited in the proclamation are pointing to this fall and winter as the window for the event — that’s the period the state’s preparedness measures (staged flood-fighting supplies, positioned Caltrans equipment, a National Guard on standby) are built around.
How strong is it expected to be?
The forecast numbers cited are specific:
- Greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño event
- 75% chance it reaches historic strength
That’s an unusually confident forecast, which is part of why the state moved to a formal emergency proclamation rather than routine seasonal preparedness messaging.
Why this El Niño may hit harder than past ones
A study cited in the proclamation found that El Niño events are now over 36% stronger than they were in the pre-industrial era, and that this intensification trend has accelerated over the last 40 years. In practical terms, that means comparing this event to “a normal El Niño winter” from decades ago may understate what’s coming.
⚠️ Forecasts like this can shift as the season develops — it’s worth checking the official proclamation or subsequent state updates for any revision to these probabilities as fall and winter progress.
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